More rail or more road? Bridges point the way

Consider the following table, then decide whether it makes sense to build 38 more lanes of road capacity over the Fraser river at a cost of $14 billion (as has been suggested will be required to keep up with growth in automobile use).

Bridge Cost capacity1 capacity2
Cambie (over False creek) $53 million 7700 16200
Alex Fraser $106 million* 7700 16200
SkyTrain $33 million 10400 21600

All capacities are given in persons per hour per direction.

Assumptions (car): one car every two seconds in each lane, capacity1 assumes 1.43 persons/car (actual figure from GVRD survey), capacity2 assumes 3 persons/car (assuming massive carpooling)

Assumptions (SkyTrain): ultimate capacity based on 75 second headways (although I have heard it claimed that 50 second headways are possible), 6 car SkyTrains, 36 seats per car, 39 standees per car. capacity1 is seated capacity, capacity2 is seated+standing capacity.

* According to a Ministry of Transportation and Highways annual report, the total cost of the Fraser river crossing and connector was $350,738,906. However another MoTH report, "Brief to Commissioner Inquiry, Coquihalla and Related Highway Projects, Sep 1987", gives the total cost of the Annacis crossing as being $483 million. By adding up the value of contracts pertaining to the bridge and its approaches I obtained the figure $106,186,760 as being the cost of the bridge. The main span alone cost $59,035,382.

James Strickland
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